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02/13/2005: "Yankees On Paper: Part 2"
Time to step back about 60 feet, 6 inches and finish looking at the 2000 Yankees and 2005 Yankees on the pitching mound to finally see which team looks better, at least on paper.
No. 1 Starter
2000: Andy Pettitte
2005: Randy Johnson
Pettitte won 19 games in 2000, but finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting behind Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson and David Wells thanks to his 4.35 ERA. In 204.2 innings, Pettitte gave up 219 hits and issued 80 walks. Johnson, meanwhile, has issued that many walks in a season just once in the last 11 years. When healthy, which he has been every year except 2003, Johnson pitches more innings than Pettitte, gives up fewer hits and fewer walks and notches far more strikeouts. His WHIP last year was 0.899 in 246 innings and he won 16 games for a moribund Diamondbacks team.
Big Advantage: 2005
No. 2 Starter
2000: Roger Clemens
2005: Mike Mussina
Clemens bounced back from a subpar 1999 season with a 13-8 record and 3.70 ERA in 2000, pitching 204.3 innings. But he gave up a career high 26 home runs. Really, if he wasn’t Roger Clemens, he wouldn’t have been a fearsome presence in the rotation. Kind of like Robert DeNiro in Meet The Parents, he wasn’t bad, but being who he was added something to the performance. Mussina, meanwhile, had perhaps his worst season last year, dealing with injuries for the first time in his career and going 12-9 with a 4.59 ERA. I don’t think he’ll have problems coming back, but it’s a question now that has to hang over the Yankees.
Slight Advantage: 2005
No. 3 Starter
2000: Orlando Hernandez
2005: Carl Pavano
The big problem for El Duque in a 12-13, 4.51 ERA season in 2000 was the gopher ball – he gave up 34 in 195.2 innings, leading everyone to speculate that he was closer to 54 than 34. Pavano, just 29, seems to have turned a corner in his career, going 18-8 last season with a 3.00 ERA. Of course, that 2004 season for Pavano could also be one of the most fortuitous free agent year campaigns of all time. But I think he’s the real deal – and even if he’s not, he should still be better than El Duque was in 2000.
Advantage: 2005
No. 4 Starter
2000: Denny Neagle
2005: Jaret Wright
The Yankees traded Ed Yarnall, Drew Henson, Brian Reith and Jackson Melian to get Neagle, which wouldn’t be so bad if they hadn’t felt compelled to try to get Henson back. The result of that was trading Wily Mo Pena, who could have been in line to replace Bernie Williams as the next home grown center fielder. Neagle was an abomination in his half season with the Yankees, posting a 5.81 ERA in 15 starts and a relief appearance. How he went 7-7, I’ll never know. How he parlayed that into a big free agent contract in Colorado, I’ll also never know. Not to mention the whole $40 hooker thing. If Wright can manage to stay healthy, he can’t possibly be worse, but he hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in back-to-back seasons since 1998 and ’99.
Slight Advantage: 2005
No. 5 Starter
2000: David Cone
2005: Kevin Brown
Every time I went to the Stadium in 2000, it seemed like Cone was on the mound, and on more than one occasion, I left the ballpark just wishing he would retire and leave with some dignity. He wound up having a decent 2001 with the Red Sox before an ill-fated comeback with the 2003 Mets, but Cone’s 2000 season was embarrassing. He had a 6.91 ERA and the 4-14 record to match. Brown is the guy who couldn’t get the job done in Game 7. He will be 40 years old on Opening Day with a long history of injuries. This could be an ugly season for Brown, or he could put it back together for one more run at a contract – that’s been his M.O. for a long time, anyway. He’s still too talented to be a No. 5 starter, but is just kind of in there by default. He’s on a bit of an island this season, and that might be where he does best.
Advantage: 2005
Middle Relief
2000: Randy Choate, Jason Grimsley
2005: Tanyon Sturtze, Paul Quantrill, Felix Rodriguez
To be fair, the 2000 team also had Dwight Gooden turn in a pretty solid effort after Ramiro Mendoza got hurt. Grimsley issued 42 walks in 96.1 innings and gave up 10 homers, far too many for a sinkerballer. Neither he nor Choate could eat up innings like Sturtze. Quantrill is about on Grimsley’s level, but Rodriguez’s mere presence gives a huge edge to the 2005 group. The last five years, he’s pitched in 68 or more games each season, with an ERA over 3.29 just once. Rodriguez did give up a career high eight homers last season, but over his career, he keeps the ball in the yard. He could easily wind up as the primary setup man for this team.
Big Advantage: 2005
Setup Men
2000: Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson
2005: Stanton, Tom Gordon
Stanton worked 68 innings in 69 games in 2000 and gave up 68 hits with 24 walks and 75 strikeouts. Of course, now he’s 37 years old and coming off a season in which he worked 77 innings in a career high 83 appearances for the Mets. But he was worlds better than he was in 2003, probably back to the form he showed in 2001 and 2002. Nelson worked just under 70 innings and gave up only 44 hits in 2000 – and he allowed only two homers. Nelson’s biggest problem was walks, but that’s preferable to Gordon’s penchant for giving up big hits. It’s also got to be a concern for the Yankees that Gordon, who had a phenomenal regular season in 2004, worked 89.2 innings, the most he’s pitched since 1997 – and that he’s 37 years old.
Slight Advantage: 2005
Closer
2000: Mariano Rivera
2005: Rivera
Statistically, 2000 was actually one of Rivera’s worst seasons, even though he was still at the height of his powers. He pitched 75.2 innings in 66 games and came away with 36 saves and a 2.85 ERA. His 25 walks are still the most he’s given up since 1996, when he worked 107.2 innings and walked 34. The Red Sox proved that Rivera is no longer invincible – it will be interesting to see how he responds to that. He came back from a rocky 2000 season with 50 saves the next year. I’m betting on a similar rebound this season. Still, there’s a chink in the armor now.
Slight Advantage: 2000
Adding up the totals, the 2005 team has a six and a half to one half edge on the 2000 in the pitching department, giving the 2005 Yankees a 10-4 advantage overall on paper. I’d give the 2000 Yankees a bonus point for their version of Joe Torre, though – the manager has seemed to lose a step in recent seasons. He doesn’t have the magic touch anymore, maybe because he doesn’t have Sojo anymore.
Still, this team looks much better than the last championship team on paper, thanks largely to its pitching, which is what wins the rings. Will they? I don’t know. But I think they have a better chance than they did last season.
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