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02/13/2005: "Yankees On Paper: Part 1"
With pitchers and catchers now just two days away from reporting to spring training (finally!), I thought I’d take some time to examine whether, at least on paper, the Yankees are better now than when they won their last World Series in 2000, taking a look position by position. I’ll use the Yankees who played in that Series (plus Randy Choate and Jason Grimsley to get the roster to 25 since I can’t remember exactly who the two guys were that didn’t play), and my best guess at the 2005 lineup.
Of course, the 2000 Yankees went 87-74, just 13 games over .500 – their fewest games over the break-even mark since going 76-86 in 1992. While I’m not totally looking at the team that struggled through much of the regular season, a Yankee fan would have to hope that this season’s team is better.
At least mentally, this exercise should bring me back to the good old days…
Catcher
2000: Jorge Posada
2005: Posada
This should be the start of a recurring theme. In 2000, Posada was 28 years old on Opening Day and went on to hit a career-high .287 with 28 homers and 86 RBI. He also drew a career-best 107 walks and his on-base and slugging percentages of .417 and .527 also represent career highs. Of course, he also played 151 games that season, plus 16 more in the playoffs – a toll that he’s probably been paying ever since. He set another career high last season by grounding into 24 double plays. Now he’s 33 years old and a catcher who’s been behind the plate for 955 games in his career. Posada has hit 20 or more homers each of the last five seasons, but I think the month-long drought he had on the way to 21 last season is the sign of things to come.
Advantage: 2000
First Base
2000: Tino Martinez
2005: Martinez
My thought that Tino will be the everyday first baseman is a reflection of Jason Giambi’s glove and that Joe Torre will have a choice of Tino, Jason Giambi and Ruben Sierra for two spots – first base and DH. I think that Tino will be the first baseman most days, with Giambi as DH and Sierra used primarily to pinch hit for Tony Womack late in games. Tino’s decline began in 2000 – he broke a string of five straight 100-RBI seasons, hit just .258, saw his on-base slide to .328, his worst as a Yankee. His on-base has gone up every year since then, but his number of games played has gone down or stayed even every year during that stretch. Still, he played 138 games in 2004 with the Devil Rays and hit 23 home runs in 458 at-bats, much better than his 16 in 569 for the 2000 Yanks. Even at 37, Tino has a decent shot to do better in 2005 than he did in 2000 – but it could go either way.
Advantage: Push
Second Base
2000: Jose Vizcaino
2005: Tony Womack
By the end of the 2000 season, Chuck Knoblauch was moved to DH to compensate for his defensive woes. That left Vizcaino, whose World Series was much more heroic than his .235 average would indicate, at the keystone sack. In 76 games with the Yankees in 2000 after being acquired for Jim Leyritz in June, Vizcaino posted a .319 on-base percentage, exactly the same as Womack’s career total. He also played a pretty good second base. What will the Yankees get from the 35-year-old Womack, who hit .307 for the 2004 Cardinals after failing to make the Red Sox out of spring training? He’s not as good a fielder as Vizcaino, but he’s a slightly better hitter in my estimation and certainly better on the basepaths.
Slight Advantage: 2005
Third Base
2000: Scott Brosius
2005: Alex Rodriguez
Brosius’ best year isn’t close to Rodriguez’s worst year. And 2000 was not Brosius’ best year. A .299 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, 64 RBI. His .374 slugging percentage was lower than A-Rod’s .375 on-base last year in the worst year he’s had since 1997.
Big Advantage: 2005
Shortstop
2000: Derek Jeter
2005: Jeter
Jeter has been trending downward since 2000 – his batting average has gone from .339 to .292, on-base from .416 to .352 and slugging from .481 to .471. Each of those numbers has gone down ever year, except for a spike across the board in 2003 and another uptick in slugging last season thanks to 23 homers and a career-high 44 doubles. But Jeter also won his first Gold Glove last season, and there’s no doubt that he’s become a much better fielder over time. And even with his struggles at the plate, you can still pencil him in to score at least 110 runs every year. He’s still in his prime, and the sting of last year’s playoff collapse probably gnaws at him more than anyone.
Advantage: Push
Left Field
2000: David Justice
2005: Hideki Matsui
Justice hit 20 homers in 275 at-bats after coming to the Yankees a month before the 2000 trading deadline, and I remember people at the time suggesting that he should have been considered for the American League MVP based on his contributions for the final three months of the season. If Matsui makes a leap from 2004 to 2005 like he did from 2003 to 2004, he’ll be right there with Justice – who hit 41 home runs between Cleveland and New York in 2000. It’s not out of the question that Matsui could do that, but it’s hard to see him carrying this team for stretches at a time the way Justice did.
Slight Advantage: 2000
Center Field
2000: Bernie Williams
2005: Williams
Bernie at 36 isn’t in the same universe as Bernie at 31. In 2000, his numbers were .307/.391/.566/30 HR/121 RBI in 537 at-bats. Last season, in 561 at-bats, he was .262/.360/.435/22 HR/70 RBI. (The first three numbers are BA/OBP/SLG.) And watching him play, it’s hard to believe he’s the same guy who hit .333 in 2002, let alone a former Gold Glove outfielder.
Advantage: 2000
Right Field
2000: Paul O’Neill
2005: Gary Sheffield
Like Brosius, who struggled all season but had a solid World Series, Paulie Pinstripes was great in the World Series. He was 9-for-19 in the five games against the Mets and became the only player since Paul Molitor and Devon White of the 1993 Blue Jays to hit two triples in a World Series. O’Neill could easily have been the Series MVP over Jeter, but that’s an argument for another day. But Paulie’s season wasn’t so great. His .424 slugging percentage was his lowest as a Yankee, as were his 18 home runs. Meanwhile, Sheffield is coming to camp healthy – he was nearly the AL MVP last season with at least one bum shoulder. BALCO aside, it would take a major slip for Sheffield to fall to O’Neill’s 2000 level.
Big Advantage: 2005
Designated Hitter
2000: Chuck Knoblauch
2005: Jason Giambi
Knoblauch’s numbers in 102 games and 400 at-bats in 2000, some of which were at second base: .282/.366/.385/5 HR/26 RBI – the important thing for Giambi will be the power numbers. If he doesn’t match that, the Yankees are probably in big trouble. It all depends on whether Giambi is healthy and whether he can put up numbers even close to what he did when he was on steroids. I don’t think he can, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt by leaving this a question mark.
Advantage: Push
Bench
2000: Clay Bellinger, Jose Canseco, Glenallen Hill, Luis Polonia, Luis Sojo
2005: Bubba Crosby, John Flaherty, Andy Phillips, Ruben Sierra
I’m giving the 2005 roster spots to guys who have been with the Yankees – it’s certainly subject to change. There were five guys on the playoff bench and no true backup catcher (unless the Yankees also had Chris Turner available, but I have to imagine that they carried 10 pitchers). So, the 2005 bench is necessarily thinner because there will almost certainly be 11 pitchers on the regular season staff. That said, the 2000 bench looks better, especially with Hill, who hit 16 homers in 132 at-bats after the Yankees got him from the Cubs.
Advantage: 2000
I’ll look at the pitchers next time. To see where we are, let’s score a slight advantage as being worth a half, advantage as being worth one and big advantage as one and a half. With one slight advantage and three advantages, that would be three and a half for the 2000 Yanks with one slight advantage and two big advantages to the 2005 squad for three and a half. It’s a dead heat with the bats, although you could probably argue Giambi all day.
Like I said, though, the Yankees have to want to be better than the 2000 team on paper. We’ll see how it shakes out on the pitching.
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