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12/14/2004: "Pay-dro"
Not too long ago, I wrote about potential bad free agent contracts in baseball.
I never dreamed that list might include Pedro Martinez.
My thinking was that nobody would give Pedro more than a couple of years. He just turned 33, but it's an old 33. He's probably already a Hall of Famer based on what he's done to this point in his career, but how much more does that brittle body have in the tank?
Look, he can still absolutely dominate when everything is working. But all I see from this is a disaster for the Mets, assuming that the deal gets wrapped up under the reported terms of four years, $50-56 million. I think we all know by now how it goes down: Pedro is great for about five starts, but on a chilly May night at Shea Stadium, where it's winter until June, he's suddenly giving up runs. The fastball isn't there, and Pedro lasts just three innings.
The next day, he has an MRI and the day after that they get the results. Some part of his arm, most likely his shoulder, is kaput. He's done for the season.
Pedro comes back in the middle of 2006 and pitches well, but the Mets are already too far out of the pennant race for him to make a difference. His contract limited their payroll flexibility and kept them from contending.
In 2007, Pedro shows flashes of his old self. At 35, maybe he still has something in the tank. The Mets think about trading him after a slump in June, but he turns things around with a no-hitter against the Red Sox at Fenway Park, the first no-no in Mets history. That sparks the Mets into July and gets the team within "striking distance" of the wild card. They decide that they're going to have to be blown away by an offer to trade him, and don't get any such offers for a 35-year-old sometimes ace with a history of shoulder problems and a $13 million salary. Pedro's pitching well, but the team fades in late July, just before the trading deadline -- they get a couple of prospects in exchange for Kris Benson, who will be a rent-a-player somewhere else for the rest of that season.
Finally, in 2008, Pedro is the X factor for the Mets. If he can stay healthy and contribute as a No. 2 or 3 starter, they'll contend. If, if, if. Another cold Shea night has the Mets Network running replays of that awful night that submarined the 2005 season. Pedro's done, and everybody knows it.
He goes to Cooperstown in 2013 wearing an Expos hat.
A better indication of the future might be in the numbers. According to Baseball Reference, the following five guys are the most similar to Pedro stastically at this point in his career (in the live ball era... I didn't include Jack Chesbro). I researched this for a graphic that ran in today's Daily News. Just look at the numbers for these guys through 32 and after (by "season age," according to BR, not by actual birthday):
Pedro
Up to 32: 182-76, 2.71 ERA
Roger Clemens
Up to 32: 182-98, 3.00
After: 146-66, 3.41
Lefty Grove
Up to 32: 171-71, 2.84
After: 129-70, 3.32
Juan Marichal
Up to 32: 203-98, 2.70
After: 40-44, 3.61
Dwight Gooden
Up to 32: 177-97, 3.31
After: 29-25, 4.47
Whitey Ford
Up to 32: 158-63, 2.77
After: 78-43, 2.69
And if I had to pick among those five for the ones who pitched most like Pedro, I'd go with Marichal and Gooden. You could almost draw a parallel between Gooden's drug problems and Pedro's injury problems. I certainly don't expect Pedro to be the next Clemens.
That's where it stands right now with Pedro. He's a very old 33 years old, and despite all he's done, he now has to prove himself on a year-by-year basis. Giving him a four-year deal might be suicide.
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